ANDERSON, Ind. — Economic forecasts that show 2010 looking brighter across the country might be a bit too optimistic for east central Indiana, a Ball State University economist said.

Due to losses in the manufacturing industry, many which came from an ailing General Motors and Chrysler, the area of the state that includes Anderson, Muncie and Marion might not rebound from the economic recession as quickly as other parts of the country, said Dagney Faulk of Ball State’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

In the Madison County area, Faulk predicted a decrease in employment by half a percentage point through the first quarter of 2010 before employment stabilizes. She expected household income to remain flat in the area.

Faulk’s predictions were part of an economic panel on Tuesday presented before the Anderson Rotary Club. Three other panelists forecast economic conditions for 2010 in the national, state and financial arenas.

Small cities like Anderson were struggling before the recession, Faulk said, thanks to the loss of auto manufacturing jobs. Madison County’s manufacturing jobs went from 30,000 jobs in the 1970s — GM’s heyday in Anderson — to 3,000 now, she said. From 2008 to 2009, the county has lost 1,000 manufacturing jobs and posted slight gains in jobs in leisure and hospitality, government and construction.

The county saw a slight drop in unemployment from 10.4 percent in August to 9.7 percent in September, the last month for which data is available. That number, Faulk said, is not always a reliable indicator that the economy is turning around.

“Frustrated job seekers are dropping out of the labor market,” she said. “It doesn’t count part-time workers who want to work full-time.”

Gaming also could take a hit in 2010, Faulk said, after voters in Ohio chose to allow gaming in that state. Anderson’s Hoosier Park’s location in the interior of the state might make it less susceptible than the state’s riverboat casinos to the Ohio gaming impact, however, she said.

“That is expected to have a negative impact on Hoosier Park’s operations here,” she said.

Indiana outlook improves in 2010

Indiana’s gross domestic product, one standard by which the state’s economic health can be measured, was 49th in the country at one point during 2009, said Jerry Conover of the Indiana Business Research Center. A large chunk of the state’s decline in economic growth was attributable to a 28 percent shrinkage in the manufacturing sector.

“It was a rough year for Indiana,” Conover said. “I’m seeing a little sunshine on the horizon.”

Conover forecast that Indiana would see a 2 percent increase in personal income in 2010. Personal income has been growing more in 2009 than many other states — Indiana is 16th in the country — but much of that growth can be attributed to federal stimulus and unemployment benefits, he said.

Job growth in Indiana seemed to level out in 2009, with employment shrinking by 200,000 jobs by July but rebounding shortly after. Indiana led the nation in job growth in September, Conover said.