Published July 19, 2008 10:34 pm -
BIG JOE CLARK: Wall Street needs a blue light
Weekends weren’t complete during my childhood years until Mom and Dad had taken us to Kmart. The family would walk around and look at things we did not need and really couldn’t afford waiting for the next blue light special to flash. We would rush to the “special of the moment” to determine if it could justifiably fit into the family plans. Kmart is a discount retailer, but it found a way to put special emphasis on certain items at certain times - similar to QVC and the Home Shopping Network. Wall Street, unfortunately, has no such device, and many sale items go unnoticed. Most stocks are either all on sale or are too expensive.
The shoppers on Wall Street are called “bulls” - people who believe the market is clearly undervalued at this point - and the sellers are the “bears” - the ones who are certain the market has much more to fall - and the bulls and the bears are doing battle on a daily basis. The markets’ daily twists and turns have everyone on the edge of their seats.
This constant motion provides overwhelming data points, and it is very difficult to put everything on slow motion so that you can analyze the momentary specials. But there are some great buys out there!
Going back in time to 2001 is an emotionally difficult task. Not only were innocent individuals, families and friends taken from us, but our entire nation’s financial structure was under attack. The markets hadn’t been good since March 2000 for most investors, and many things looked cheap. Perhaps they were, but you may remember that most things got a whole lot cheaper in the third quarter of 2002.
Some super shoppers are disappointed if they don’t get the lowest possible price - ever! Perhaps you know someone who walks around the sales bin at the local stores and eyes a worthwhile and valuable item.
The item is already marked down - hence, it is the bin - but is this the lowest price, or can you get it cheaper? Some people look at the possible purchase and make a determination on the current price and then they walk away with the goods - or not. If you liked a sweater that was $50 and now it is $25, maybe you like it enough to take it home - it could still fall to $15 later into the summer. Was it a good buy or not?
This is over simplification, and I am fully aware of the differences between a sweater and a company with many moving parts and changing economics, but I am also aware of the similarities. Just as you look to see what the material of the sweater happens to be, the color, the size, etc., you
should be just as familiar with the companies that you are examining for potential purchase. The more in touch you can become with an investment, the less likely you are to be irrational and emotional. That includes buying at a ridiculously high level, as well as selling at a bottom.
The blue lights are flashing everywhere, so there is no clear “blue light special” beckoning your attention. We recommend doing the same thing my family should have done before going to Kmart: Make yourself a shopping list of things you would like to own and narrow down the field. Try not to list a company name, but more of a sector or a particular type of business. Then find the company or ETF — exchange traded fund — that matches that want. Perhaps you will find a flashing blue light that makes sense for you.
We are now in a global bear market, with Brazil down over 20 percent from the high and China off as much as 52 percent. Everything else is in between the two, including the good old United States. The markets are ugly right now. You need to make sure you know what you own, why you own it and how you plan to use it.
The same recommendation applies to things you are thinking about buying. No matter how cheap something appears at this level, I implore you not to buy it based on price until you are comfortable with the company and have a committed strategy for the entrance and the exit.
Kmart counts on spur-of-the-moment buying. Wall Street counts on the same spur-of-the-moment buying and selling.
The headlines are like giant blue lights covering the entire store, but you have the choice to block out the headlines, stick to your shopping list, and be disciplined enough to follow the rules. Look for the blue lights near something you want to own.
Joseph “Big Joe” Clark is a Certified Financial Planner and the managing partner of the Financial Enhancement Group, LLC. He is a registered principal offering securities and Registered Investment Advisory Services through World Equity Group, Inc, member FINRA/SIPC. Big Joe can be reached at bigjoe@yourlifeafterwork.com, or (765) 640-1524.