ANDERSON — It was a tough year for Anderson Community Schools. Years to come might not get any easier.

Trends that have become constants for the system — declining enrollment, shrinking revenue and a dismal graduation rate among them — reached worrisome levels.

“I definitely think we’ve got a big problem,” said Fred Guthrie, a father of three ACS students — two at Anderson High School and one at North Side Middle School. “The school system has been in disarray for a number of years.”

Three schools closed on Friday — Robinson and Southview elementaries and South Side Middle School. More could have closed and more probably will.

“I don’t see how we’re going to survive without looking at some additional closings,” said ACS Superintendent Mikella Lowe, who will retire on July 1. Lowe said the system’s budget deficit of $5 million could increase to $10 million or $11 million in 2011.

“I hope that’s a worst-case scenario,” she said.

She has said her successor and the system face more difficult choices in the year ahead. Assistant superintendent Lennon Brown will step in as an interim leader. He has made no bones about the tough job he will inherit.

Regarding the schools’ financial state, “We’ve never been here, where we are now, before,” he said.

Tuesday, the Anderson Community Schools board laid off three dozen teachers as part of its deficit-reduction effort. DStafford 5/26/09 check this. Some of those positions might be restored with federal stimulus money, but that won’t be clarified until next month.

ACS Business Manager Kevin Brown said the cuts made so far should save about $4 million. But it’s an excercise that will likely be repeated, especially because state revenue forecasts are shrinking.

“It’s bad news exaggerated by more bad news,” he said.

“This is just the beginning,” Anderson Federation of Teachers President Rick Muir said in a recent interview. “It’s not the end of the cuts. ... The future doesn’t look good for the next two to three school years.

“These are some of the most difficult times I’ve seen,” Muir said, “not just for education, but for towns and cities also. It’s not just ACS and the city of Anderson, it’s across the field in all four corners of the state.”

But it’s tougher at ACS due to declining enrollment. Each student enrolled in ACS or other Indiana schools represents about $6,000 in state funding. Fewer students mean less money.

ACS’s enrollment has steadily declined in recent decades, and the system is predicted to lose more students. Compounding the population decline, many parents have opted to transfer their children from ACS to systems such as Frankton-Lapel, Alexandria, Daleville and Yorktown. For the first time last year, such transfers could be done tuition-free to systems that accept nonresident students. South Madison Community Schools is considering allowing nonresident students to transfer.